First Goalscorer Betting: Player-Specific Strategy
First goalscorer betting offers big odds on players. Predict which player scores first using form, set pieces, and matchup analysis.
Unlike betting on match outcomes, first goalscorer requires you to think about individual player performance rather than team dynamics. This creates opportunities for bettors who do their homework on player statistics, because bookmaker odds often fail to account for nuanced factors like set-piece responsibilities, recent form, and tactical matchups.
How First Goalscorer Odds Work
Bookmaker odds are based on a player's likelihood of scoring the opening goal. Key factors that influence the odds:
- Position: Strikers have shorter odds than midfielders, who have shorter odds than defenders. Goalkeepers are rarely offered but occasionally score from long-range efforts.
- Penalty duties: Players who take penalties have a significant advantage because penalties account for roughly 75% of first goals in many matches.
- Recent form: Players in good form are more likely to score early. Check the player's last 5-10 matches for goals, shots on target, and xG data.
- Opposition weakness: If the opposition has a weak goalkeeper or a defence that concedes early goals, the first goalscorer odds for the attacking team become more attractive.
Key Factors for First Scorer
1. Set piece taker: Players who take penalties, free kicks, or corners are significantly more likely to score the first goal. A player who takes penalties and free kicks is effectively the first-choice scorer for their team. Always check which player has penalty duties before placing your bet.
2. Teams that score early: Some teams have a tendency to score early goals. Check each team's scoring patterns - if a team scores 40% of their goals in the first 30 minutes, their striker is a strong first goalscorer candidate.
3. Strong headers of the ball: Teams that create many crossing opportunities and have strong aerial threats offer excellent first goalscorer value. If a team averages 5+ crosses per game and has a striker who wins 60%+ of aerial duels, that player is a strong candidate.
4. Home advantage: Players generally score more goals at home due to crowd support, familiar surroundings, and the psychological boost of playing in front of their own fans. Give extra weight to home players in first goalscorer analysis.
First Goalscorer Strategy
Value betting: The best first goalscorer bets are not always on the favourite. Look for players who are priced too high due to recent bad luck (hitting the post, good saves) rather than poor performance. A striker who has hit the post 3 times in the last 5 games is due a goal, but the bookmaker odds may not reflect this.
Each-way first goalscorer: Some bookmakers offer each-way first goalscorer bets, which pay out at 1/3 odds if your selection scores at any time during the match. This provides insurance if your player does not score first but does score during the match.
In-play first goalscorer: If the first 20 minutes pass without a goal, the first goalscorer odds shift significantly. Players who were originally 5.00 might drift to 8.00 or higher, creating value if you believe they are still likely to score.
Use Bet365 for extensive first goalscorer markets.